Search, Googles crown jewel, and humanitys way of finding the worlds information, has big problems. These problems threaten the internet as we know it; if theyre allowed to continue developing, unchecked, the consequences will be far-reaching and severe.Collectively, these threats are called Dark Matter.
What is Dark Matter?
Dark Matter is the information on the internet that search engines cannot see, index or search, and the more Dark Matter there is, the darker Googles future. Its the stuff buried within apps, social networks and single-page architectures.
What makes Dark Matter so dangerous and difficult to stop is that the technology responsible for it is has also become essential to modern life. If its growth continues unchecked, Dark Matter could eclipse discoverable information, which would not only destroy Googles Search, it could take the worlds information and lock it away inside private internet fiefdoms.
Do we know how much Dark Matter exists? Like its astrophysical namesake, its difficult to tell directly. But we can measure Dark Matters impact on adjacent internet markets. For example, when you take a look at search advertising revenue, the problem becomes illuminated in shocking clarity. Ever since its inception in the late 1990s, Search has grabbed an ever-increasing share of digital advertising revenue. But in 2016, the IAB dropped a bombshell: It reported that Search advertising, Googles cash cow, saw its first ever decline in revenues, while Facebook, the largest Dark Matter generator in the world, saw its largest ever revenue growth.
Something dramatic has changed.
Social networks have extraordinary reach on the web 31 percent of humanity has at least one social network account. And the amount of content contributed to the social web is staggering. In 60 seconds, almost 4 million posts are made to Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, and 400 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube. During that minute, Google processes 3 million searches.
Those social networks are privately controlled. While Facebook is currently searchable, Mark Zuckerberg could decide, at any given moment, to make Facebook and Instagrams content unavailable to external search engines, instantly transforming an enormous area of the web into Dark Matter. Google could choose to restrict YouTube results to its own engine. Twitter could keep individual tweets from appearing in SERPs. Each of these social platforms has the potential to become its own private internet.
And how does the concept of a private internet play out? We are learning more, in light of the 2016 presidential election, of the existence of filter bubbles, which encourage unprecedented levels of confirmation bias, both in social media and search. That problem will only be exacerbated with the expansion of Dark Matter.
In 60 seconds, almost 4 million posts are made to Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
Apps have defined the modern, mobile lifestyle. The problem is, they are totally separate from the searchable web as a matter of course. Apps came about in response to technology constraints on the first iPhone. They have developed into the central theme of this technological zeitgeist. Search crawlers have no access to the compiled code of native apps, which lives outside of mobile browsers. The content within apps is unavailable to search engines as a de facto result of their construction.
So with only a few exceptions, the information you enter into your phone is all Dark Matter. And consumers spend 85 percent of their time on smartphones within apps, trapping more and more of their connected lives in these disconnected islands.
Were sticking with policies that took hold in 2007. Since then, mobile browsers and devices have become significantly more powerful, and connection speeds have skyrocketed. So why havent we moved beyond the limitations of the native app?
Looking to the future
If you abstract out these issues, you can see where this is going. Search the core of our internet and the current information paradigm humanity relies on will collapse under the weight of Dark Matter. As I see it, we have two options:
- Googles Search stays, the world bends to its needs and Dark Matter generators change. Native apps will change to become SEO-able, or move to the web; single-page apps will be built with Search in mind; and social networks will open up to search engines.
- Googles Search dies and something new rises to replace it something that can search Dark Matter. Imagine Apple builds a search technology to index compiled code. Facebooks social search rises to become the preferred search for social fiefdoms. The web as we know it today becomes a backwater lounge for internet laggards.
Which scenario is best is a function of who you ask. But when will we know who won?
Despite what popular media might suggest, many paradigm shifts dont happen in a single, pivotal, eureka moment. They are evolutions, not events. Theyre at the culmination of many years worth of work done by many great minds all contributing to the human effort to eventually solve an enormous problem.
The echelon of innovations that lead to a lasting solution, which Steven Johnson calls the adjacent possible, will be the battlefields that will shed light on who is winning the fight to control the future of information. Over the next decade, it will be a Game of Thrones amongst the Great Houses of Tech:
- Google and Facebook will fight to dominate single web pages and web apps with the weapons of Angular and React.
- On another battlefield, Apple will lock horns with Google over the control and legitimacy of pseudo-indexed native apps through deep linking.
- Will we see a return of House Microsoft coming from out of nowhere to reclaim its glory?
Will Google retain the throne? Or will we see the fall of House Google, followed by a crowning of many kings?